Performance Prognosis in Swimming

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Ruzbarsky P., Turek M.

The system of evaluation and prognosis of performance is based upon the performance evaluation of both Czech and Slovak swimmers – juniors and seniors, and the best world swimmers (top ten of all time in each discipline). When using mathematical relations and correlations, it is possible to determine the coefficients of optimal curves of the dynamics of performance development in each event. One of the main roles prior to setting up individual prognosis is the choice of the most suitable duration of time series. It is generally recognized that time series that are either too short or too long, give less reliable results. Along time series is negatively influenced by the lower level of performance in the past, on the other hand, short time series does not offer enough information for producing relevant prognosis. The following methods were used while data had been processed: time series method, method of regression, least square method and method of extrapolation.
Key words
prognosis, swimming, sport performance, time series method

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