The Explanatory Capacity of Talent Identification Tests for Performance in Triathlon Competitions: A Longitudinal Analysis

The aim of this study was to determine the explanatory capacity of the Spanish Triathlon Federation’s talent identification tests in relation to performance in competition in subsequent years. We used an exploratory longitudinal study design to establish the relationship between talent identification tests completed by 247 triathletes (97 women and 150 men) aged from 14 to 19 years and the results they obtained over the years in competition. The battery of tests included freestyle swimming (100 and 1000 m) and running (400 and 1000 m). The results indicate that the explanatory capacity of these tests for split places in competition in the corresponding discipline was highest in the 1000-m swimming test, with a value of 0.34 for the adjusted coefficient of determination (R2a) (p ≤ 0.001), followed by the 1000-m running and 100-m swimming tests, where the highest R2a values were 0.26 and 0.19, respectively. No significant model was found for the 400-m running test. It was concluded that the explanatory capacity of the tests analysed for predicting performance in the discipline in competition was low. However, it was higher for the swimming and running tests of longer distance.