Coach Mid-Season Replacement and Team Performance in Professional Soccer

The coaching carousel or turnover is an extreme but frequently occurring phenomenon in soccer. Among the reasons for firing a coach, the most common is the existence of a shock-effect: a new coach would be able to motivate the players better and therefore to improve results. Using data from the Spanish Soccer League during the seasons from 1997-1998 to 2006-2007, this paper investigates the relationship between team performance and coach change over time. The empirical analysis shows that the shock effect of a turnover has a positive impact on team performance in the short term. Results reveal no impact of coach turnover in the long term. The favourable short-term impact on team performance of a coach turnover is followed by continued gradual worsening of results. The turnover effect is non-existent when the comparison between the new coach and the old coach is done over 10, 15 or 20 matches before and after termination.